Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 19.377519 23.337356 27.693083 32.812496 38.636464 45.027657 52.542605
2025-10-12 13.865660 19.117606 25.482013 33.640009 43.689644 55.533107 70.404532
2025-10-19 10.677894 16.427559 23.947102 34.235157 47.657133 64.277611 86.089027
2025-10-26 8.659313 14.663892 23.045506 35.145687 51.670859 72.935103 101.789496
2025-11-02 6.811545 12.692706 21.439941 34.723628 53.642251 78.838237 114.047143
2025-11-09 5.560531 11.332959 20.432384 34.886605 56.234267 85.507692 127.430226
2025-11-16 4.507696 10.055975 19.318232 34.679412 58.152610 91.217356 139.634647
2025-11-23 3.551545 8.724352 17.891533 33.773859 58.876396 95.173678 149.472407
2025-11-30 3.081803 8.196979 17.710084 34.768116 62.440113 103.256355 165.303073
2025-12-07 2.488083 7.274734 16.691324 34.249001 63.571272 107.778676 176.165336
2025-12-14 2.102144 6.701641 16.215767 34.569872 65.994324 114.255113 190.011280
2025-12-21 1.590410 5.687689 14.732101 32.946215 65.106646 115.625804 196.340611
2025-12-28 1.389369 5.421367 14.759780 34.157821 69.164274 125.029306 215.384188
2026-01-04 1.180689 5.074573 14.574647 34.966979 72.615171 133.683186 233.698590
2026-01-11 0.992534 4.719833 14.308952 35.577343 75.730568 141.901142 251.589814
2026-01-18 0.852813 4.463977 14.221689 36.515145 79.451753 151.205698 271.415968
2026-01-25 0.669803 3.979182 13.501727 36.080369 80.648930 156.411469 284.974806
2026-02-01 0.545734 3.648425 13.097867 36.248256 82.930947 163.457616 301.605275
2026-02-08 0.431071 3.289802 12.549379 36.034820 84.459613 169.264272 316.389197
2026-02-15 0.319204 2.863481 11.722664 35.101878 84.531139 172.564519 327.191555
2026-02-22 0.275314 2.746805 11.756691 36.126197 88.445301 182.581111 349.162891
2026-03-01 0.207305 2.439231 11.154121 35.591411 89.232144 187.167857 362.322955
2026-03-08 0.167200 2.264228 10.925247 35.921975 91.758055 194.873449 380.818087